Hope is not your only strategy

It's easier to convince people that they were wrong.
- Mark Twain



Markets have finished a turbulent past year 2012 with the goal. If Congress and President Obama met with an agreement that the federal budget occurs (and the economy) the prosecutor figurative cliff collapse During the month of December, more people have asked me if we go over the cliff than anything else could. OK, but "What can I do for Christmas?" But that was not the case of a small group of people the same question many, many (many) times.

(Also repeatedly heard: "Why the hell do you want Nigeria," The answer to this question lies in our recent summary of our research trip to see this amazing giant "Nigeria", "growing giants." African sleeping sickness).

What we saw in December was a strange confluence of market factors. First, as usual, many investors tax loss, they may lose the effects of the reduction in exposure to their benefit tax. With the impending increase in capital gains rates, but the testimony in December 2012 also saw a significant increase in sales tax, so I went ahead and investors who sold shares worth rose, locking in the tax rate in 2012. Moreover, to keep fear and hope and commitment cliff fiscal policy of the Federal Reserve had zero interest in the near future, in our opinion, the unfortunate distorted the values ​​of the market return.

These disorders have real consequences for investors. For example, I recently had a screen on the stock market performance of companies in the Russell 2000 measure often cited by U.S. companies based on small caps. The shares of companies in the bottom 25% in terms of return on equity - one of our favorites measures to ensure quality - much better than the first quartile of the highest returns on equity in the past 12 months to October 2012.

If you have questions about why we were not particularly by the movement of the shares in the short term excitement, taking into account the effects of the previous section. In fact, this data suggests that a good strategy is to deliver superior returns on investments in recent years have been made operational and loading profiles terrible. While there is certainly about dumpster diving is sometimes for a company, the low quality that we believe is trading at a price significantly below fair value, we believe that the advice of Warren Buffett, "It's much better, big business to buy at a fair price for a just society, a wonderful price is "something in the neighborhood of the Gospel. We believe that our portfolio companies tend to operational indicators, even if they are small (market orthodoxy that are perceived as more risky), headquartered in emerging markets (ditto), and result bit heavy (double ditto). When the market - as they do from time to time - focus on things other than the company expected and the quality we can. We do not believe that buying a fad or trend - built on the same macroeconomic issues - and I hope to go there, it is a good basis for a successful long-term investment.

This is not the result I expected
Not far from my home in Vienna, Virginia, is a remarkable building at the corner of two main roads, the Chain Bridge and Old Court roads. Most striking feature of the building is a large arch, concave vertical framing a building. It is possible that the building has an official name. Probably something bland "Crosspointe building trade wind" or "Eastgate Towers West." It does not matter, because everyone calls this building. "Building toilets" It even has its own Facebook page.

(Just saw: Bleh called "Tycon courthouse construction.").

This country is an attractive option, near Tysons Corner, the largest metropolitan area suburban office space in the United States. I'm sure in 1983, or the architect or builder or developer trying to make a building that looked like a giant pot to build. And yet this is exactly what we have.

Ultimately, the architectural theme tries not to call for the results they achieved relevance. I laugh a little less for the first time that the developer was in front of the proposed designs - probably at the end of the building - "Is it just me, or is that a bit like a toilet" and then j "I thought it was too late crimes against architecture that already committed to the joy of decades worth of asylum management.

If I had a difficult transition for a lesson on investment (well, you got me - I just wanted an excuse to talk about the construction of toilets) decision must always remember that our belief of what will happen is, often completely separate ex ante actually occur. I always try to, in the sense of "should" think.

Many investors make their investment decisions with false balance considering the potential benefits that can be generated, and the possibility of loss. Few people want about how they do not think. However, the absence of risks to consider, does not change the nature of these risks. It is rare that smoking is a deadly choice, but is simply mathematically correct that smoking increases the risk of all sorts of nasty diseases. Not as snuff kills 100% of the time, is that the decision should smoke, lead to unpleasant consequences for health.

Beware of the risk of events
If you think about it, a risk factor for a company rather static. The potential exposure to an investor who increased risk factor by their ignorance. In short, if you can not be identified a potential risk factor a company rather misprice their actions. This is important because, as you have seen, the stock prices fluctuate a bit, and where the population is currently in talks with the intrinsic value of an important element of risk management.

For example, very seriously in the years prior to 2007, hundreds of Chinese small caps fell on U.S. exchanges, called the most from a backdoor reverse merger. U.S. investors, feeling the very real possibility that represent the incredible growth of billions of dollars of Chinese consumers plowed in these companies. Unfortunately, many investors do not properly take into account the other side of the shipping companies with a culture or shareholders, nor any credible threat of sanctions for misconduct.

What few investors - including us - the possibility that like the Chinese government in these scams have accomplices. In April 2012, the SEC filed a court order to the accounting firm Deloitte & Touche, documents require, they need to investigate fraud Longtop Financial, a Chinese company that has - is found to misrepresent its financial results violently - in any case cost American investors more than 1 billion U.S. dollars. The Chinese government has banned Deloitte, these documents with the SEC, under the pretext that the Chinese law limits the disclosure of state secrets. Regardless of whether Longtop apparently had no secrets. If D & T ignored the request, in possible violation of U.S. law. If this is true, contrary to Chinese law.

There are two ways for investors to reduce access to event risk. The owner of a large number of companies that reduce their exposure to bad news in a company or an industry. The other - your choice - invest in relatively few companies and a deep understanding of them as possible to try to develop. We do not like strangers in our portfolios - that would be a fatality about 200-300 known companies in each portfolio. We believe that if you are familiar with the knowledge of the company, how they work and who runs it allows us to make better decisions. It is very exciting to find a new way, but if you think about it, as long as you understand something when first found less! It is vaccinated only against risks - bad things happen. But better able to anticipate and correct value anticipable in real estate companies.

In fact, although China "wins" in their attempts to Chinese companies, to protect the interests of investors and regulators, the victory will be very expensive for them. Sophisticated investors are much less likely to share. In the markets in which they buy feel the odds stacked against them, and when they do, their discounted rates will be much higher The Chinese government has in the demonstration that global investors that Chinese companies should generally considered a much higher risk of poorer quality than firms could be in other countries.

Chinese stocks fell despite market conditions that are normally very welcome them. U.S. and European economies have the smell of rot and untenability around them, and low interest rates have pushed investors looking to reduce their risk aversion across various asset classes. (May the lowest note is the debt and still considered the extent investments) - As a small example, a former portfolio was as American Tower prepares for $ 1 billion debt, indicating that Standard & Poor's has revised BBB. American Tower is the issue of debt of 3.5%, a percentage that was hardly available to the U.S. government a few years ago. As I said, the investors are in danger. Chinese equities is an obvious alternative. After all, China is one of the largest and most dynamic economies in the world. Instead, the reputation of China for the plant a little more security in Russia.
evaluation criteria Critical Thinking

evaluation criteria Critical Thinking

Critical thinking is a "complex process of consultations involving. A broad range of skills and attitudes" The first time I became aware of. Critical thinking as a practice for many years as a student at the University, in the preparation of evaluation missions

Was developed, which was for me a lifelong habit of questioning: Who says what, why, and what can I say?

Also constantly ask questions, I learned that critical thinking involves verification bias. One of the few books I remember college days Darrell Huff's How to Lie with Statistics, which I highly recommend.

So what?

I always have a diploma frames, never worked students. As a matter of priority, and in advance, I think the stated evaluation criteria and important skills that people will be expected to develop and demonstrate, including how they are expected to comply with the evaluation criteria.

Critical thinking in the field of higher education in collaboration with the complexity, uncertainty, and dynamic interactions. It is above all a constant challenge and the knowledge about alternatives. In detail, critical thinking is as follows:

a systematic approach to the scale and identification of interacting elements of a strategic problem

The risks in the process of

Difficult cases (ours and others)

Reviewed various strategic options

Identify and defend the selection criteria

Reflect the impact of the paradoxes, limitations and incomplete knowledge

Using evidence to draw conclusions valid and entitled to plead the cause of the draw.

The content of this framework has been learning has always been a means to an end, in my opinion. The only reason to attend a graduate is to develop high-level skills of thinking and learning to work in communities of practice with his teammates at the top of the complex knowledge.

The ability to work and life?

The ability to think critically is obviously important, of all the possible things that affect our lives are informed, so that the media and advertising we believe that the politicians want to tell us. What is the truth? Where is the hidden agenda? We are being manipulated?

Critical thinking is a core set of skills that should be learned by anyone who went to college. Why, when so many people with college education, no critical thinking and the challenge seems lacking in organizations so many years?

The current global financial crisis is a rich source show of historical evidence that social and cognitive barriers to critical thinking and action are deeply rooted in our individual tendency to avoid conflict, where a delay in the development of social habits and rigid organizational structures .

Individual barriers

Cognitive bias is a problem. Our prejudices (often unknown), and the assumptions we make. Based on these prejudices affect the conclusions that they reach and the choices we make

Another obstacle is the individual tendency to make decisions that may be driven by emotions or ideology that can be justified post-rational.

Obstacles to group dynamics

Group dynamics can lead to think only when it becomes difficult to contradict a prevailing view or request the status quo. Question of power is not for the faint of heart. For those who have the courage to go against the grain and talk, you run the risk of public condemnation.

Said Gillian Tett of the Financial Times that in the economic form 2007 in Davos:

"One of the most powerful people in the U.S. government at the time was on the podium and praised my article, the article predicted the problems of Northern Rock, for example, of the fear-mongering"

Construction of silos and mental models

The combination of rigid mental models and organizational structures barriers rooted in the system of critical thinking. Limited prospects in silos, rather than one or more organizations Eco-system.

Gillian Tett, spoke about the impact of bunker mentality in the Guardian article referenced above. Financial analysts are focusing on their own experiences could not see the bigger picture. But for me, an example of the failure of the CIA and the Defense community in the context of the atrocity is 9/11 is the simplest irrigation.

John Farmer as a senior adviser 9/11. In his opinion, the old settings and modes of operation of the Cold War era in secret, imposed including the CIA, the FBI and the Department of Defense. ". Defective by design" unwilling and unable to provide information on agencies shares were systemic failures and results of systems, farmers were told:

"The boundaries between and within the different sections of the country came to the knowledge of knowledge acquired abroad, the findings from the human intelligence of electronic skills and knowledge acquired by investigation leads to criminal behavior, the effects of awareness of the situation and general intelligence. .. each line rises on a fault line, condemned an opportunity for the system to fail. "

It also examines the responses to Katrina in 2005, and in the epilogue to the second edition of the book, the attempted attack on a plane at Schipol Airport Amsterdam to Detroit on Christmas 2009th Katrina said:

"The unwillingness or inability bureaucratic cooperation between ministries paralyzed efforts to anticipate and respond to Katrina, not unless it was efforts to intercept and respond to crippled 9/11, the opportunity which a unified chain of command."

If this lack of willingness to cooperate and the inability to change the mindset of an earlier, exceeded bureaucratic arise in the defense of a nation and a city, you certainly can occur in research income.

Carriage agreement

It is in this context that Margaret Heffernan "willful blindness" describes in this TED conference to oppose Dare, where people do not see or know to choose. Face blindness means questioning skills development and disagreements, but he says, while against a Nero-biological unit goes forces us to look for people like us. He also said that most people are instinctively afraid of conflict. His conclusion is that we do. The skills, habits and moral courage to participate in this challenge and overcome our fear of conflict need to develop

Practice allows

Like any other skill requires the development of critical thinking and behavioral skills a lot of practice and deliberate. Challenging the status quo is never will be easy, but it can and must be done. I know it can be done because I have been working to transform with extraordinary people who challenged the status quo to the cultures of the power in their workplace.

One of my goals for the company to work at an early alpha smart community open learning is a place where critical thinking is to experience a safe place to reflect, share and discuss together. We are practicing against another - without being disagreeable, of course! There is something to do.

The examples given here are spacious, with serious consequences, but we all face similar challenges to think critically and to act accordingly when making decisions in increasingly complex environments. Margaret Heffernan talks about winning allies courage. I hope to develop supportive relationships within the community open learning, to promote the need to look in the help of allies in their workplace.
Increasing requirements for ESD protective breathing innovative architecture Strategies

Increasing requirements for ESD protective breathing innovative architecture Strategies

• 
  The higher data rates through the new I / O, such as HDMI, SATA, DisplayPort, MIPI and engineers are needed studying ways to reduce the ability of electrostatic discharge (ESD) protection devices. Manufacturer, but are willing to a higher level through finer process geometries offer are vulnerable to attack by EDS.
  
  1. 
     
  EDS is now struggling with traditional architectures to ensure adequate protection and support the desired speeds, the design community before a big dilemma. As a result, engineers are forced to difficult trade-offs between reliability and quality of the signal, which threatens an element of the overall system performance. Chip design that can meet the new demands for both higher throughput and better ESD protection has become a difficult task for manufacturers.
  
  The development of the ESD protection
  
  The landscape of the ESD protection has undergone a dramatic change with the acquisition of producing smaller geometries, the lined and the protection of the changing environment of the application:
  
  Small geometries: What process node semiconductors for advanced nowadays integrated circuits (ASICs) and 90 nm fell below the level of voltage and power outages occur that discharge also produce lower. Interfaces widespread adoption of high-speed data increases the complexity of maintaining signal integrity and maintaining an adequate level of ESD protection. Robust ESD protection usually means higher capacity, which threaten to adversely affect the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), forcing developers to one or the other.
  
  Reduces chip protection: ESD damage sensitivity was well known. For example, the Industry Council on ESD Targets recently announced an initiative to reduce the level of standard on-chip ESD protection, so that the external ESD protection circuits against the more critical for system reliability.
  
  Changes in the application environment: laptops, cell phones, MP3 players, digital cameras and other portable consumer devices to be used in uncontrolled environments (ie, without the use of adhesive tape to the ground strap or polished driver / tops). In these environments, user I / O connector pins when connecting / disconnecting cables. Portable device also charge can accumulate during normal use and then discharged when power to another device, such as for example, connected to a computer or a television.
  
  Equalization impedance
  
  A matched impedance of the total transmission line is a critical factor in the drawings, a high speed. The characteristic impedance is affected by many factors, including the line width, the thickness of the dielectric plate, sheet materials, and components of the traces.
  
  The characteristic impedance of a transmission line is the square root of L / C, where L is the inductance and C is the capacitance, the. Therefore, if the additional capacity to a point, then the impedance is reduced at this point. Conversely, when the inductance is added to increase the impedance. The inclusion of an ESD protection circuit is due to its own ability to influence the impedance of the line. Consequently, it must be compensated by an impedance matching.
  
  Although the main goal of an optimized design matches the impedance of the line, is entitled to 100 Ω ± 15% in the HDMI standard. Each guard added to. The line when a diode varistor suppressor or polymer inserts, the ability to not only from the device itself, but also the connection points of the printed circuit board unit (PCB)
  
  Increased capacity and distorts the signal of poor quality video and even failure of the compliance test result. Therefore, the ESD protection vendors have concentrated on reducing the capacity of their plants. However, as already mentioned, this negative impact on the performance of the ESD protection. For example, the capacitance of the diode can be reduced by reducing its size. This may lead to increase the resistance, but this will result in a higher voltage and leakage current terminal to reach the protected device.
  
  Compensation techniques
  
  In order to compensate for the additional protection device performance, system designers often try to reduce the capacity elsewhere on the board, or add an additional inductance. Compensation techniques typically include:
  
  • Adding a common mode choke or filter: The inductance of a coil can compensate additional capacity ESD device. Unfortunately, the high speed Common Mode Inductors design can be very costly and should be avoided.
  
  • Reducing the width of the track in the protection (increased inductance trace): Often referred to as "trace necking", this technique can be very effective if only small amounts of compensation are required, however, a restriction thin dielectric. occurs and the capacity of the ESD protection device is too high, it may be difficult to achieve a suitable impedance.
  
  • Reduce trace capacitance: This can by removing the lower ground plane and reduce the possibility of plot done in the field of ESD.
  
  Although each of these techniques has been successful at best suboptimal due to the additional complexity of the design and cost. You need good design and control of manufacturing processes and environments, the use of expensive external components (such as common mode chokes) or complex PCBs increased total bill. Another drawback is that many engineers do not have enough experience in the design of controlled impedance layout. This lack of experience often leads to errors in design and development costs and snowballs as schedule multiple grafts and checkerboard design and production. Finally, many large manufacturers favor with several suppliers of PCBs that make it difficult to handle a unique design that makes making works with all providers.
  
  A new approach
  
  Given the significant shortcomings of these compensatory techniques to investigate further semiconductor manufacturers for innovative architectures to ensure the integrity, even at high data rates required by the industry today. And they do this without the possibility of ESD protection element is of paramount importance in doubt.
  
  One example is the architecture PicoGuard XS. According to the developers, ON Semiconductor, the integrity of the interface data signals defend at a high speed while improving the ESD protection. This eliminates the parasites, routing and tracking on the package, instead of the bottom. We reject any compensation from the integration of external inductors with the ESD diode, corresponding to the impedance of the signal line. Inductors integrated ESD to improve performance by reducing the voltage and residual current seen blocking the ASIC.
  
  Standard packaging structure allows the soil around the lower part of the body (Fig. 1). That is, the wire bond pads of the die is still very long, which. An adjustment of the inductance So the motherboard manufacturer does not need to make a compensation method. In addition, with respect to the dynamic resistance (RDYN) surpass using product architecture PicoGuard XS other traditional flow through parts that says protecting high speed differential data lines ON Semiconductor.
  
  The architecture eliminates the need to change or inductances wide traces on the board. Also not on the stacked card, the system designer with multiple providers, configure without an impedance table for each supplier to make depend. Capable of an impedance is independent of the number of layers of the circuit board game, the thickness of the dielectric, and other variables provide specific design.
  
  Here Comes The Science Bit
  
  ESD protection device for an inductor standard provides the parasitic inductance of the wire and the conductor paths leading to the protective device (Figure 2). The inductive element has a high impedance high impact ESD download speed, which limits the ability of the guard to quickly absorb energy. As a result, more energy reaches the protected ASIC.
  
  In contrast, the inductive elements of the architecture PicoGuard XS series with the conduction path for the protection ASIC (Fig. 3). What actually limiting current and voltage of the device deprotection. Firstly, the inductive reactance is L1 connector holding an electrostatic discharge. It acts in the opposite direction of the current ESD, helps to limit the peak voltage type. The inductive reactance in L2 firepower pull side ASIC ESD current limited then by ESD protection diodes. The same time the voltage drop across the two elements in series to reduce the voltage in the ASIC parameters as protected.
  
  Completion
  
  The next generation of electronic devices that support data transfer marry at high speed with high signal integrity and chain of custody of electrostatic discharge. This requires a fundamental change in the design of ESD protection, because now is the point where the borders of traditional techniques capacitance compensation are too large, achieved. It was the advent of advanced architectures, requires the signal integrity for high-speed interfaces and provides ESD protection required for reliable operation possible.
  
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